Political unrest is a widespread phenomenon that can have severe consequences for people and businesses. One of the most common causes is economic inequality, which leads to a lack of resources and a growing sense of injustice. People then feel frustrated and resentful of the government, and may begin to protest. The most extreme cases can lead to civil war, which is often characterized by a cycle of violence that lasts for years and destabilizes the economy.
The occurrence of unrest is a significant threat to global stability. A study by IMF staff found that economic instability in a neighbouring country has a negative impact on the global economy, even 18 months after the most serious event. This is because people stop spending, companies lose production and services, and the global economy suffers.
While there is no single definition of political unrest, it is commonly used as an umbrella term for protests, strikes and riots. Some data sets, such as the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED, 2019), define different types of violence that could be considered to be part of a civil unrest outbreak:
As we approach the 2024 election, the possibility of post-election unrest has been raised by extremist factions on both the right and left. Their inflammatory rhetoric and ongoing legal battles have heightened fears of a violent conflict regardless of the outcome. In addition, domestic issues like rising costs of living and economic dissatisfaction are contributing to increased tensions.
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